BACKGROUND
It is not new to Syrian and Kurdish Observers,that the YPG has a non-aggressive pact with the Assad Regime since 2012. Also, that has been pretty much holding due to the Regime need to focus its effort over Damascus and Aleppo,back then when the FSA rebels were attacking those two vital cities.The FSA attacks on Damascus and Aleppo and the subsequent FSA takeover of North and Eastern Syria effectively shielding Rojava/The Kurdish areas from direct attack by The Main Regime Army. The Kurdish YPG, on the other hand didn’t want to get involved in the Syrian Civil War and didn’t want to suffer the wrath of the Regime’s Airforce and Artillery over the Kurdish villages and towns and cities of Qamishlo and Hasakah and the other two separated areas of Efrin and Kobani. The YPG began its official control over Kurdish Areas with the takeover of Kobani and then Amuda and Girke Lege/Al-Mabada from Regime Forces,YPG assumed Partial control over Al-Dirbasiyah and Derik/Al-Malikiyah and Efrin,but would enforce it full control over these towns later on.The YPG emergence as a third side was a proof of the split within The Syrian Uprising of 2011,especially when FSA forces arrived to Kobani/Ayn Al-Arab city after the takeover of Jarablus and Shiukh and the YPG rejected their entry into the town,even though Pro-FSA protest continued in Kobani in the incoming weeks,this would later develop into limited tensions between FSA and YPG near Efrin,where the Regime maintained a presence in Brigade 135 and Qibari(until their takeover by the FSA in November 2012),after their withdrawal from Efrin town.Even though the situation in Al-Jazira between FSA and YPG in Hasakah remained positive,where both side fought to take Qamishli from Regime Forces in July 2012.The Situation got complicated when the Free Syrian Army along with Jabhat Al-Nusra forces and Ghuraba Al-Sham effectively enter the Kurdish areas in Hasakah,that the Kurds call Rojava by their offensive from Turkey into the town of Sere Kaniye/Ras Al-Ain,that was effectively under Regime control with a YPG presence in the town.It took a matter of a week for the rebel coalition to take Sere Kaniye/Ras Al-Ain from Regime Forces.The YPG feared that the Rebel entry into Hasakah is a Turkish Plot to control Kurdish areas and end the newly established Kurdish control over the border areas of Hasakah that the YPG has taken from the Assad Regime,due to the Regime’s withdrawal.Tensions in Sere Kaniye would developed into violent clashes between the Rebel Coalition and the YPG in the town,then a bigger development occurred after Regime-Held Hasakah became Isolated from the rest of Regime-Held Syria after the FSA takeover of North Deir Ez Zor Governorate villages of Jazrah and Kubar and its nuclear reactor and the FSA takeover of Tal Abyad from Regime forces by Al-Farouq brigade and the capture of Maadan by FSA. All of these FSA gains isolated The Regime in Hasakah Governorate. The FSA brigades and with it Jabhat Al-Nusra and Ahrar Al-Jazira and Ahrar Al-Sham and Liwa Al-Tawheed then announced an campaign to take Hasakah Governorate from the Regime in Early February of 2013,beginning with Markada and Al-Shaddadi(which was taken on 14 February 2013) and then Al-Arishah and then all the way to Tal Brak and Tal Hamis and Yarubiyah by March 2013.The YPG responded to the Rebel Offensive in Hasakah by surrounding Regime-Held Rumeylan and Al-Qahtaniyah/Tirbespiye and Jawadiyah/Cil Axe and the oilfields in the area.In the meanwhile the YPG gained control over the Kurdish Neighborhoods in Hasakah City and 40% of Qamishlo City.There was an Rebel Coalition Offensive on Qamishlo that’s goal was to take Qamishli from Regime Forces and they offered Cooperation with the YPG in the City,which the YPG refused due to the fears of effects that the fighting would take on the City.At the Same time FSA had its own Kurdish units in the FSA,including Jabhat Al-Akrad (which was formed in 2013),Jabhat Al-Akrad controlled Kurdish villages in North Aleppo Countryside and had joint control with FSA in Tal Abyad. Jabhat Al-Akrad maintained ties with the YPG. The Situation in The Kurdish Area took another turn,when Tensions rised again between YPG and Syrian Opposition,after YPG takeover of Sere-Kaniye from Al-Nusra,which resulted in opening a wider conflict between the Syrian Opposition and the YPG.
YPG-ISLAMIST CONFLICT AND US INTERVENTION FOR YPG AND FORMATION OF SDF
Jabhat Al-Akrad and YPG clashed with ISIS(After ISIS arrived in Syria and took over half of Nusra’s fighters with them) and Al-Nusra and Ahrar Al-Sham,which resulted in the expulsion of YPG and Jabhat Al-Akrad from Tal Abyad,the conflict spreaded in North Aleppo Countryside with ISIS and FSA and Nusra expelling Jabhat Al-Akrad from all the villages that it held in the area,the Opposition expelled Jabhat Al-Akrad under the accusation of being a PKK affiliate and also accusing the YPG of being a PKK affiliate,which result in the rebel siege of the Kurdish areas/Rojava. The YPG would respond to this with deciding to protect Kurdish areas by expanding and taking areas beyond Kurdish Majority areas,with the taking of Suweidiyah and its oil field and taking Yarubiyah/Tal Kocher from ISIS(which began expanding its influence and control in Hasakah).The YPG then later in 2014 would announced the formation of the autonomy of Rojava,with forming 3 cantons,Efrin Canton,Kobani Canton and Cizire Canton.the Cantons remained isolated from each other.Then in January 2014,the Syrian Opposition-ISIS conflict began which resulted in ISIS takeover of all areas surrounding Cizire and Kobani. FSA and Jabhat Al-Akrad would eventually reconcile and FSA allowed Jabhat Al-Akrad to fight with FSA on the front against ISIS,but ISIS would eventually defeat them and take most of North Aleppo’s countryside with the exception of a narrow pocket that stretches from Azaz to Marea. Then ISIS began its offensive on Kobani in September 2014,which resulted in ISIS takeover of nearly all of Kobani Canton with the exception of the west half of Kobani city.In the meanwhile the US intervened against ISIS after the beheading of journalists at the hands of ISIS.After US intervention in Iraq (Operation Inherent Resolve) against ISIS,US decided to extend the intervention into Syria in order to defeat ISIS,after reinsurance by the Regime of not targeting US aircraft.The US aerial intervention effectively changed everything for the YPG,where the YPG was capable of defeating ISIS in Kobani and going after ISIS controlled towns,one after the other,where YPG succeeded in taking ISIS strongholds of Tal Hamis and Tal Brak and Mount Abdul Aziz and Mabrukah. Then YPG connected Cizire Canton with Kobani Canton after the taking of Suluk and Tal Abyad and Sarrin,then YPG began recruiting Arab fighters such as Al-Sanadid and FSA groups and YPG announced the formation of the Syrian Democratic forces/SDF to give itself more legitimacy in its fight in Arab Areas. Under SDF,SDF forces captured many ISIS stronghold from 121th Regiment,Al-Hawl,Tishreen Dam,Al-Shaddadi,Al-Arishah,Manbij and Tabqah and its dam and Baath Dam and Al-Mansurah and parts of Raqqa City and the 17th Division and also attacking FSA-held town of Tal Rifaat and captured some of the Kurdish villages south of Marea from ISIS.Also by this time SDF clashed with Regime forces in Hasakah and Qamishli Cities and took the majority of those cities,nearly reaching 90% of both Cities.In The process SDF cleared the Majority of Hasakah and Raqqa Governorates,seizing significant areas of Aleppo and Deir Ez Zor Governorates in the process.
RUSSIAN INTERVENTION AND REGIME RECOVERY
Ever Since the Russian Intervention in the Syrian Civil War on September 30 2015,which ever since Regime Forces have been making steady gains against the Syrian Opposition. Where by 2017 Regime Forces captured most of Rebel-Held Latakia,Rebel-held Aleppo city and South Aleppo city countryside and breaking the rebel-siege over Nubl and Zahraa,which the YPG took advantage of and took over most of the Rebel-Held pocket back then in 2016,including Menagh Airbase and Tal-Rifaat .The Regime breaking the Siege of Nubl and Zahraa in February 2016 marked the first time since 2012 that the Main Regime Army connected with SDF forces of Efrin Canton. After that Regime Forces launched an Offensive to clear out ISIS-held areas east of Aleppo City,which resulted in Main Regime Army connecting with Sahbaa Canton for the first time since 2012,after it took nearly hundred of villages in Aleppo Govenorate. The Regime Offensive continued and captured Jirah Airbase and Maskanah and the Main Regime Army connected with SDF forces of Kobani Canton for the first time since 2012.This lead to limited clashes between both sides temporarily,but the linking symbolically meant that Rojava and SDF areas are no longer shielded from the Assad Regime by another force.
THE FUTURE OF SDF CAMPAIGNS AND THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE LINKING
Ever since the Linking between SDF and The Assad Regime territories,Trade has flourished between both sides. SDF Oil-trucks have been arriving to the Assad Regime Territories.Militarily,after the linking and after Assad Regime’s Takeover of territories adjacent to SDF territories.Assad Regime has made substantial gains elsewhere in the country.After the Assad Regime’s second capture of Palmyra from the Islamic State/ISIS. The Assad Regime has been expanding in the Syrian Badiyah desert,capturing 1000s of Square Kms from ISIS.In The meanwhile,ever since the Russian Intervention in Syria and the FSA and the Syrian Opposition in general have been put on the defensive with 2 exceptions,and these exceptions have to do with with the fight against ISIS.Those exceptions are Operation Euphrates Shield and Syrian Rebel advances in ISIS-Held Syrian Badiyah. After the Conclusion of SDF-operation to takeover Manbij City and its countryside from ISIS,and Turkey has been worried that the next SDF operation would be ISIS-Held Al-Bab,which would have effectively link Efrin Canton with Kobani Canton.So Turkey after getting a Russian approval after the agreeing to exchange North Aleppo Countryside with Rebel-held Aleppo City,launched Operation Euphrates Shield.Turkey has tried multiple times to intervene in North Aleppo countryside ever since the linking of Kobani and Cizire Cantons,trying to get an American approval,which US didn’t grant,because US did want to anger the Kurds,who were the Counter-Terrorism army that the US has been depending on,ever since the Battle of Kobani. Operation Euphrates Shield began with the seizing of The countryside of Jarablus and Jarablus town,eventually Euphrates Shield forces would link with SDF forces at Al-Amarinah and the sides clashes for days until an agreement was reached which made the Sajur River the boundary between SDF and Euphrates Shield.Euphrates Shield would continue advancing against ISIS and link with the embattled FSA groups near Al-Raii that where fighting ISIS for 2 years in back and forth battle.The Euphrates Shield forces would eventually reach Marea and advance and take Al-Bab and 10s of Kurdish villages that where ISIS-held ever since the FSA and Jabhat Al-Akrad lost these villages in 2014.The Second Rebel advance in the time period of the Russian Intervention was the fight against ISIS in The Syrian Badiyah. Ever Since ISIS takeover of the vital rebel stronghold of Bir Qassab and seizing the rebel’s supply route to the Eastern Ghouta and entering Suwaydaa Governorate in 2014 and seizing Rebel-Held Tal Dawka and Dirat At Tulul in 2015 and FSA has been trying to recapture the Syrian Badiyah from ISIS.There was sporadic fighting between ISIS and the FSA Rebels. Jordan and the US ever since the Rebel Defeat in Deir Ez Zor have been training FSA forces in order to take Deir Ez Zor back from ISIS.So in Late 2015,they began training New Syrian Army,which was able to take Al-Tanf Border Crossing by March 2016. By late 2016 FSA began its major attempts to clear the Southern Syrian Badiyah at the border with Jordan from ISIS,which succeeded in 2017 in expelling ISIS from the area,after ISIS was forced to withdraw in order to gear up more forces to face SDF in the Raqqa Campaign that SDF has launched in late 2016.But the Assad Regime decided that these FSA forces were a threat Regime’s plan to reconquer Syria,so Regime Forces began attacking these FSA forces in the Syrian Badiyah and this led to US Airstrikes in order to protect the US garrison at Al-Tanf Base on several occasions,but the Regime Forces along with Foreign Iraqi Shiite PMFs and Foreign Palestinian forces closed route to Deir Ez Zor by reaching the Iraqi Border on June 9 2017.Before closing of the route to Deir Ez Zor by Assad.The US was planning to reach Deir Ez Zor and taking its rich oil-fields,by getting FSA to take the Shamiyah side of Deir Ez Zor (West bank of the Euphrates River) and getting SDF to take the Jazira side of Deir Ez Zor (East bank of the Euphrates River).The US plan to get SDF to take the Jazira side of Deir Ez Zor remains in plan.After the end of the Battle of Raqqa,SDF will go for Deir Ez Zor along with Arab tribal forces within SDF and Arab component of Deir Ez Zor Military Council that SDF has formed,which the Regime is worry of .SDF’s campaign towards Deir Ez Zor’s Jazirah side will have many benefits towards SDF,one of those benefits and the most important is that the Euphrates River will form a strong natural boundary against any Regime attempt to attack SDF areas,secondly the area contains decent quantities of oil with which under SDF control,The revenues won’t go to The Assad Regime,which will cause an outrage among the loyalist population which will cause discontent.This will make the Assad Regime dependent on Russian and Iranian money in order to sustain the state and also which will make reconstruction of Syria difficult without depending on European and Gulf money,which won’t fund a reconstruction unless Assad resigns,unless the Chinese agree to fund the reconstruction.The regime will have no ability to reconstruction which will cause more discontent among the Syrian people and opens the possibility for civil unrest in Syria against Assad.Thirdly SDF control over Deir Ez Zor’s Jazira side will liberate the population from ISIS rule,and if SDF giving the local population control and autonomy,this will improve SDF’s image among the population and will lessen the hatred by Arabs against SDF. But this depends on SDF control over their forces and not forcing the population out of their villages and towns and treating the population decently. Because of these reasons the Assad regime will have the audacity to go after SDF.
THE FUTURE OF SDF EXISTENCE
With HTS takeover of Idlib and The Regime Successful campaign against ISIS in Aleppo Governorate and The Regime’s campaign to seize the Shamiyah side of Deir Ez Zor and to force ISIS withdrawal form ISIS-Held Hama and Homs Govenorates. The Regime’s next goal after that would be Idlib,for multiple reasons,because it is the beating heart of the Syrian Rebellion against Assad.After Assad eventually finishes the rebellion in Idlib after heavy casualties and After forcing Reconciliation in Daraa. The Assad Regime will go after SDF because firstly of the regime’s intentions to recapture all of Syria,Secondly to recapture the oil rich regions of Hasakah and Deir Ez Zor in order to fund the reconstruction of Syria,Thirdly to regain its full legitimacy as the sole ruler of Syria,Fourthly to fully avert the effects of the Syrian Revolution and to fully crush dissidence in Syria,Fifthly to return the old order in Syria and to not be under pressure to end the rule of the Assad dynasty,Sixthly in order to for the regime to transfer the rule of Syria to from Bashar to Hafiz in the incoming decades,Seventhly in order to avert any Future Pressure that SDF might cause on the Assad Regime in case of the occurring of a Second Syrian Revolution. For these seven reasons Assad will go after SDF. Under the Isolationist US administration of Donald Trump,The administration has promised to arm the Kurds in order to fight ISIS,but the same Trump Administration has said that they are in Syria for counter-terrorism operations only and haven’t promised any protection to Syrian Kurds yet. Although the Trump administration has taken steps against Assad Regime’s encroachment on SDF territories by shooting down a Regime Aircraft that was approaching SDF areas,even though the US is building Airbases in Northeast Syria,even with the Russian-American Agreement to share zones of influence in Syria.The Assad Regime by International law and International community remains the legitimate and sovereign power over Syria.Which puts US presence in the area under UN questioning under Assad’s request because this wasn’t really done under the consent of Assad Regime.This consent was done by the Assad Regime because it would benefit it in the fight against ISIS.If the Assad Regime was the disputed authority by international law over Syria,then Assad couldn’t really complain over US presence in Syria.If these steps were done under a Hawkish Administration whether it be a Democrat or Republican administration then,it would have been assured that SDF is safe.But the Trump Administration is an isolationist administration that would do what Putin wants for unknown reasons,the declared reason being having peace with Russia. The Assad Regime has began fortifying the Qamishli and Kawkab Pockets that it controls with Hezbollah and Iraqi Militias and formed the Syrian Hashd in these areas.This is proof that the Assad Regime still cares for the Hasakah Governorate area.So eventually Assad will go after SDF areas with a Russian green light,because Russia under Putin has no interest to changing the status quo in Syria.Even though it has adapted to the new status quo in conflicts in Ukraine and Georgia and Libya,but chances in Syria are very favorable for it to enforce the previous status quo.Especially after the Assad Regime regained areas that it was unthinkable that he will retake,so it is very possible that Russia will enforce the status quo.
CONCLUSION
The US might betrays its allies on the ground in the long term,the US betrayal of SDF might occur in Syria for multiple of reasons.the only way SDF can prepare itself for that day is seizing Deir Ez Zor’s Jazirah side (East of the Euphrates River) and fortifying at the Euphrates River.Because keeping the Front line at the Hasakah Badiyah goes to the benefit of the Assad Regime,due to the reinforcement of Iraqi and Palestinian militias that has gained experience in the desert warfare against ISIS and the likely deployment of the Tiger Forces into the area .Thus SDF should go for Deir Ez Zor’s Jazirah side of the Euphrates River.
VivaRevolt 